It certainly was a promising set-up. now what? - 15 Mar, 24

There are a lot of issues on the geopolitical, economic, monetary policy, fiscal policy, and election fronts. Nonetheless, the stock market has continued its positive trend so far in 2024.

What that means for the stock market's performance over the coming months will depend on which way the surprises break and how those many issues resolve themselves.

Impressive to note that the stock market has run to record highs even though the market has adjusted its thinking to expect three rate cuts before the end of the year instead of the six rate cuts expected when 2024 began. Ed Yardeni comments this week summarise the dilemma: “The vertical momentum rally that started on October 27, 2023 seems to be losing some of its momentum. Maybe. That's OK with us. We would rather see our 5400 S&P 500 target achieved by yearend, then by mid-year. But as the Rolling Stones observed, "You can't always get what you want."

A promising set-up on the world’s key equity market - 23 Nov, 23

The S&P 500 is up 18.7% this year following last year's decline of 19.4%. Today, the S&P 500 resumed its recent rally that started on October 27. It closed at 4556.62, which is on the downward resistance line connecting the January 3, 2022 record high and the July 31 high for 2023 so far. Anyone’s guess how far this might go, but investors will take what’s on offer after last year!